Thursday, October 31, 2002

Long before Sept. 11, Iraq was targeted


Jay Bookman

The Bush administration offers conflicting answers to that fundamental question. At the beginning, the president and others defined our goal as the forced ouster of Saddam Hussein and his replacement by leadership more acceptable to the United States.

But more recently, hoping to reassure select audiences such as the United Nations, the administration has claimed a less controversial goal: destroying Iraq's capacity to create and use weapons of mass destruction. Secretary of State Colin Powell has even suggested that, with an effective inspections program, regime change might not be necessary.

Clearly, though, such talk is public relations. While disarmament is important, and war may indeed prove necessary to achieve it, our real goal all along has been regime change.

The rest of the world knows that, which is why it has proved so reluctant to endorse our foray toward empire. It also explains why France, Russia and other countries have insisted that the United Nations retain the final right to decide whether arms inspections have failed. Knowing how eager we are to go to war, they do not trust us to make that decision.

The president and vice president, along with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, have tried to justify their insistence on regime change by describing it as a policy forced on them by Sept. 11. In fact, President Bush's strategists were advocating the overthrow of Saddam long before those attacks happened.

Four years ago, on Jan. 26, 1998, a group of conservatives sent a strongly worded letter to President Clinton, insisting even back then that U.S. foreign policy "should aim above all at the removal of Saddam Hussein's regime from power." It also states that "American policy cannot continue to be crippled by a misguided insistence on unanimity in the U.N. Security Council."

What makes the letter so interesting is the identity of those who signed it, and the jobs they now hold. Among them were:

Paul Wolfowitz, today the deputy secretary of defense; Richard Armitage, now deputy secretary of state; Paula Dobriansky, now undersecretary of state for global affairs; Peter Rodman, today the assistant secretary of defense; Richard Perle, current chairman of the Defense Policy Board; Elliott Abrams, now on the president's National Security Council; Zalmay Khalilzad, now the president's special envoy to Afghanistan; and John Bolton, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security.

Oh, and Rumsfeld, too.

The benefits that Rumsfeld and others hope to reap from invasion are obvious. Only regime change would place U.S. troops on the ground in Iraq, where we could establish military bases that will dominate the Middle East. Only regime change can intimidate Iran, Syria and other nations that still defy us. Only regime change will give us guaranteed access to the second largest reserve of oil in the entire world.

The dangers, though, are less obvious. By invading and occupying Iraq, we will incur vastly larger defense costs for years to come. By occupying an Arab country, we may stir rather than calm the passions that fuel terrorism. Even Henry Kissinger, who is hardly shy about exerting U.S. power, has warned that he is "viscerally opposed to a prolonged occupation of a Muslim country at the heart of the Muslim world by Western nations who proclaim the right to re-educate that country."

More important, we will have committed ourselves to what G. John Ikenberry, a foreign policy professor at Georgetown University, calls a "neoimperial grand strategy."

"It is an approach fraught with peril and likely to fail," Ikenberry writes in Foreign Policy magazine. "It is not only politically unsustainable but diplomatically harmful. And if history is a guide, it will trigger antagonism and resistance that will leave America in a more hostile and divided world."

That is hardly news, of course. Just two years ago, a prominent national politician made the exact same point.

"If we are an arrogant nation, they'll resent us," George W. Bush warned in a 2000 presidential debate. "If we're a humble nation but strong, they'll welcome us."

Sept. 11 didn't change that either.

Read more!

US warned not to seize control of Iraqi oil


October 31 2002

The chief executive of BP, Lord Browne, has warned Washington not to carve up Iraq for its own oil companies in the aftermath of any future war.

The comments from the most senior European oil executive, who has impeccable political connections in Britain, will be seen by anti-war protesters as further proof that the United States President, George Bush, has already made his mind up about an early attack.

The warning came as United Nations negotiations continued for a compromise resolution on Iraq that will satisfy Washington, Paris and Moscow.

Lord Browne's comments serve to underline concern that the US is primarily concerned with seizing control of Saddam Hussein's oil and handing it over to companies such as ExxonMobil rather than destroying his weapons of mass destruction.

Britain's biggest company is reviewing what impact the overthrow of Saddam would have on its own business and global crude supplies. Both London and Washington have been lobbied by the British oil giant, which is concerned that European companies could be left out in the cold.

"We have let it be known that the thing we would like to make sure, if Iraq changes regime, is that there should be a level playing field for the selection of oil companies to go in there if they're needed to do the work there," Lord Browne said on Tuesday.

The jockeying for oil continued as French and United States officials scrambled behind the scenes to reach a compromise on the UN resolution.

"A package is taking shape but it is not there yet," one diplomat said. "They could sort this out in an hour flat, but that doesn't mean they will."

At issue is what France, Russia and China, which hold veto power in the 15-member Security Council, consider hidden "trigger" language in the US text that they say would allow Washington to attack Iraq, overthrow Saddam and then contend the UN had authorised it.

The US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said on Tuesday that negotiations were making progress: "We're hard at work and I think we're getting closer."

Asked how long Washington could wait, he said: "We're getting close to a point where we'll have to see whether or not we can bridge these remaining differences - in the very near future, I don't want to give you days or a week but it certainly isn't much longer than that."

Read more!

Monday, October 28, 2002


Dear Saddam, How Can I Help?


By Brian McWilliams

Story location: http://www.wired.com/news/conflict/0,2100,55967,00.html

02:00 AM Oct. 28, 2002 PST

On the afternoon of July 17, a self-proclaimed expert in biochemistry composed an e-mail message to Saddam Hussein.

The message, sent from an MSN Hotmail account on a computer in China, recommended the use of methyl bromide, an agricultural pesticide, as an effective chemical weapon against the U.S. Army.

"For weapon use, have function: no color, no smell, will let person dead in a few second," wrote the e-mail's author, who provided the phone number and address of a distributor in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from which the toxic chemical could be purchased "in cylinder or in can."

The chilling electronic missive was among hundreds evidently sent to Iraq's president last summer from people around the world.

As America veers toward confrontation with Iraq, these e-mail messages provide a raw, uncensored view of global opinion -- and of the potential challenges awaiting U.S. efforts to disarm or overthrow Saddam, Iraq's leader since 1979.

It's not clear whether Saddam uses e-mail or even knows how to operate a personal computer. But scores of people write to him each week at press@uruklink.net, the e-mail address listed on the official homepage of the Iraqi presidency since at least October 2000.

Messages sent to the account, Iraq's version of president@whitehouse.gov, run the gamut from fawning solicitations for autographed photos and media interviews to obscene death threats.

The e-mails sent to press@uruklink.net were obtained earlier this month by first clicking on a link, labeled "Check your e-mail in Uruk," on the homepage of Iraq's state-controlled ISP, Uruklink.net, then guessing the login name and password -- both of which were the same, five-letter word.

Uruklink's Web-based e-mail service has been unavailable for the past three days. The version of webmail software used by the Iraqi ISP is known to have several security holes -- but the patches available for them do not appear to have been applied.

Among the hundreds of messages marked as unread in Saddam's inbox were several junk e-mails and messages infected with computer viruses. Numerous e-mails -- including some from Americans -- offered advice and assistance to Saddam.

Consider, for example, a flurry of messages apparently sent to Saddam by an employee of a Saudi Arabian oil company in July and August. The e-mails contained cryptic reports in broken English about the location of U.S. oil pipelines, as well as warnings about the movement of submarines, aircraft and other military equipment and personnel in the Middle East.

"I will try to give you (An Sha Allah) a good way to protect your Muslims," said the message. (The phrase In sha' Allah, from the Quran, means "God willing.")

Meanwhile, an Internet user from Washington state, who conceded that he would "probably end up on some FBI watch list for writing this," told Saddam in an e-mail dated Aug. 1 that he opposed military action against Iraq.

The author of the message advised Saddam to be diligent "with regards to your own personal security. The CIA is notoriously crafty and extremely adept at overthrowing governments and their respective leaders."

In another message, a resident of Vienna, Austria, told Saddam in a July 27 message that Americans are "arrogant," and that should the United States attack Iraq, "you need only send a ticket and I will come to Iraq to fight the Americans. I am a good shot, and I am serious about my offer."

Saddam's inbox also contained several solicitations from American companies hoping to do business with Iraq -- despite U.S. prohibitions and United Nations trade sanctions.

On Aug. 16, the CEO of a California wireless technology-maker e-mailed Saddam to request a meeting. According to the CEO's message, the two could discuss "technology improvements and exporting of rich technology abroad."

In a press release dated Sept. 13, the company said it has developed "4G" wireless technology capable of being used "as a weapon to ignite large sections of the atmosphere and incinerate all living creatures within its pre-selected coordinates." The press release also called for the resignation of President Bush.

In a telephone interview, the CEO said he attempted to contact Saddam to obtain permission to place a wireless communications antenna in Iraq. "No way would we ever give the weapon-of-mass-destruction technology to Mr. Hussein," the executive said.

On Aug. 14, the proprietor of a Las Vegas company e-mailed Saddam "looking for someone to talk to about selling my fire retardant for the army over there. We have a great product for the army."

The business owner replied to an e-mailed interview request, and was informed how his message had been read. The man confirmed it had been sent from his address, but that it had been a joke by a friend. He also stressed that he would never sell products to Iraq.

Joke or not, such deals with Iraq are legally risky -- if not outright illegal.

A 1990 U.S. executive order prohibits transactions between American companies and Iraq, according to Joseph Wilson, former deputy chief of the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. The U.N. sanctions imposed in the wake of Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait further restrict trade of "militarily useful items" with Iraq, Wilson said.

An excerpt from a U.N. document known as the Goods Review List (PDF) containing a list of chemicals, biological agents and other prohibited items was repeatedly e-mailed to the Iraqi president's account from several Uruklink users over a one-week period in mid-August. A file attached to the messages was infected with what appeared to be a variant of the Yaha computer worm.

The presence of strict U.N. controls didn't stop the chairman of one London company from e-mailing Saddam on Aug. 9 with an offer to mediate Iraq's purchase of unspecified products from western Europe.

"Please consider this letter as secret ... I ensure you absolute secrecy," the e-mail stated.

A Buenos Aires businessman repeatedly e-mailed Saddam in early August offering technology "stolen from the National Transportation Safety Board of United States" and designed to "enlarge the security of flight in helicopters."

According to the author of the message, the technology was worth $40 million.

International interest in e-mailing Saddam was apparently piqued in October 2001, when Iraq's leader sent a long-winded personal response to a message from Chris Love, a Pennsylvania resident who had pleaded with Saddam to seek peace with the United States.

Saddam's 3,300-word message, which included the first detailed condolences by Iraq's leader following the Sept. 11 attacks, garnered considerable media coverage. Love said in an interview that he was even forced to stop answering his phone and to disable his e-mail account after receiving a barrage of interview requests.

According to Wilson, Iraq has a "well-oiled propaganda machine" and messages like Love's "kind of play into Saddam's hands. He likes nothing more than to be able to parade some misguided people as proof that Americans don't support their government."

Nine months after Sept. 11, however, as President Bush began turning up the heat on Iraq, Americans also wrote to criticize Iraq's ruler.

A man who identified himself as a former U.S. paratrooper and Persian Gulf War veteran e-mailed on June 25 that he regretted that "a political solution decision was made before my friends and I had a chance to completely wipe your cartoon character of a leader off the face of this earth."

One AOL user sent Saddam a one-word message: "Imminent." Attached to the Aug. 6 e-mail was a photograph of an atomic mushroom cloud.

An Internet user from London chided Saddam for hoarding Iraq's oil wealth for himself while the country's citizens die of starvation. "You really are a most cynical regime," wrote the author of the e-mail, which was dated Aug. 10.

Comments about Iraq's oil resources figured into several of the messages. An Australian resident suggested in July that Saddam cut off oil to neighboring Turkey, which the message's author said was America's No. 2 ally after Israel. The e-mail said Iraq could also tighten the screws on Turkey "if they cooperate with America" by threatening to use biological and chemicals weapons on Turkey.

Though some analysts say Iraq's U.N.-mandated Persian Gulf War reparation payments -- which currently stand at more than $43 billion -- have mortgaged the future of Iraq's economy, a financial services firm in Canada was apparently still hopeful.

In a July 1 e-mail addressed to "Iraqi Presidency," the chairman of the company proposed a "future relationship" with Iraq.

The company, located in Montreal, specializes in "the movement and leveraging of financial instruments" as well as "conversion of currencies" and "offshore activities," according to the e-mail.

One pragmatic AOL user urged Saddam on July 28 to cooperate fully with U.N. inspectors as the best way to avoid war.

"Please allow the weapons inspectors into your country so that the illegitimate leader of my country, the U.S.A., who perpetrated a coup and stole the election, will not have an excuse to attack your country. If you would do that it would take away his power and weaken him and make you look like the bigger man," she wrote.

Another Internet user, who identified himself as a 20-year-old Mormon from Utah, wrote that he prayed for the day when Iraqis have plentiful food, medicine, clothing and other necessities.

But the author of a July 19 message said he was frustrated about his inability to help bring about such changes.

"To me it is all politics. Wars and disputes are not about right and wrong, nor are they about good versus evil, but they are about power," he wrote.

Read more!


Dear Saddam, How Can I Help?


By Brian McWilliams

Story location: http://www.wired.com/news/conflict/0,2100,55967,00.html

02:00 AM Oct. 28, 2002 PST

On the afternoon of July 17, a self-proclaimed expert in biochemistry composed an e-mail message to Saddam Hussein.

The message, sent from an MSN Hotmail account on a computer in China, recommended the use of methyl bromide, an agricultural pesticide, as an effective chemical weapon against the U.S. Army.

"For weapon use, have function: no color, no smell, will let person dead in a few second," wrote the e-mail's author, who provided the phone number and address of a distributor in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from which the toxic chemical could be purchased "in cylinder or in can."

The chilling electronic missive was among hundreds evidently sent to Iraq's president last summer from people around the world.

As America veers toward confrontation with Iraq, these e-mail messages provide a raw, uncensored view of global opinion -- and of the potential challenges awaiting U.S. efforts to disarm or overthrow Saddam, Iraq's leader since 1979.

It's not clear whether Saddam uses e-mail or even knows how to operate a personal computer. But scores of people write to him each week at press@uruklink.net, the e-mail address listed on the official homepage of the Iraqi presidency since at least October 2000.

Messages sent to the account, Iraq's version of president@whitehouse.gov, run the gamut from fawning solicitations for autographed photos and media interviews to obscene death threats.

The e-mails sent to press@uruklink.net were obtained earlier this month by first clicking on a link, labeled "Check your e-mail in Uruk," on the homepage of Iraq's state-controlled ISP, Uruklink.net, then guessing the login name and password -- both of which were the same, five-letter word.

Uruklink's Web-based e-mail service has been unavailable for the past three days. The version of webmail software used by the Iraqi ISP is known to have several security holes -- but the patches available for them do not appear to have been applied.

Among the hundreds of messages marked as unread in Saddam's inbox were several junk e-mails and messages infected with computer viruses. Numerous e-mails -- including some from Americans -- offered advice and assistance to Saddam.

Consider, for example, a flurry of messages apparently sent to Saddam by an employee of a Saudi Arabian oil company in July and August. The e-mails contained cryptic reports in broken English about the location of U.S. oil pipelines, as well as warnings about the movement of submarines, aircraft and other military equipment and personnel in the Middle East.

"I will try to give you (An Sha Allah) a good way to protect your Muslims," said the message. (The phrase In sha' Allah, from the Quran, means "God willing.")

Meanwhile, an Internet user from Washington state, who conceded that he would "probably end up on some FBI watch list for writing this," told Saddam in an e-mail dated Aug. 1 that he opposed military action against Iraq.

The author of the message advised Saddam to be diligent "with regards to your own personal security. The CIA is notoriously crafty and extremely adept at overthrowing governments and their respective leaders."

In another message, a resident of Vienna, Austria, told Saddam in a July 27 message that Americans are "arrogant," and that should the United States attack Iraq, "you need only send a ticket and I will come to Iraq to fight the Americans. I am a good shot, and I am serious about my offer."

Saddam's inbox also contained several solicitations from American companies hoping to do business with Iraq -- despite U.S. prohibitions and United Nations trade sanctions.

On Aug. 16, the CEO of a California wireless technology-maker e-mailed Saddam to request a meeting. According to the CEO's message, the two could discuss "technology improvements and exporting of rich technology abroad."

In a press release dated Sept. 13, the company said it has developed "4G" wireless technology capable of being used "as a weapon to ignite large sections of the atmosphere and incinerate all living creatures within its pre-selected coordinates." The press release also called for the resignation of President Bush.

In a telephone interview, the CEO said he attempted to contact Saddam to obtain permission to place a wireless communications antenna in Iraq. "No way would we ever give the weapon-of-mass-destruction technology to Mr. Hussein," the executive said.

On Aug. 14, the proprietor of a Las Vegas company e-mailed Saddam "looking for someone to talk to about selling my fire retardant for the army over there. We have a great product for the army."

The business owner replied to an e-mailed interview request, and was informed how his message had been read. The man confirmed it had been sent from his address, but that it had been a joke by a friend. He also stressed that he would never sell products to Iraq.

Joke or not, such deals with Iraq are legally risky -- if not outright illegal.

A 1990 U.S. executive order prohibits transactions between American companies and Iraq, according to Joseph Wilson, former deputy chief of the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. The U.N. sanctions imposed in the wake of Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait further restrict trade of "militarily useful items" with Iraq, Wilson said.

An excerpt from a U.N. document known as the Goods Review List (PDF) containing a list of chemicals, biological agents and other prohibited items was repeatedly e-mailed to the Iraqi president's account from several Uruklink users over a one-week period in mid-August. A file attached to the messages was infected with what appeared to be a variant of the Yaha computer worm.

The presence of strict U.N. controls didn't stop the chairman of one London company from e-mailing Saddam on Aug. 9 with an offer to mediate Iraq's purchase of unspecified products from western Europe.

"Please consider this letter as secret ... I ensure you absolute secrecy," the e-mail stated.

A Buenos Aires businessman repeatedly e-mailed Saddam in early August offering technology "stolen from the National Transportation Safety Board of United States" and designed to "enlarge the security of flight in helicopters."

According to the author of the message, the technology was worth $40 million.

International interest in e-mailing Saddam was apparently piqued in October 2001, when Iraq's leader sent a long-winded personal response to a message from Chris Love, a Pennsylvania resident who had pleaded with Saddam to seek peace with the United States.

Saddam's 3,300-word message, which included the first detailed condolences by Iraq's leader following the Sept. 11 attacks, garnered considerable media coverage. Love said in an interview that he was even forced to stop answering his phone and to disable his e-mail account after receiving a barrage of interview requests.

According to Wilson, Iraq has a "well-oiled propaganda machine" and messages like Love's "kind of play into Saddam's hands. He likes nothing more than to be able to parade some misguided people as proof that Americans don't support their government."

Nine months after Sept. 11, however, as President Bush began turning up the heat on Iraq, Americans also wrote to criticize Iraq's ruler.

A man who identified himself as a former U.S. paratrooper and Persian Gulf War veteran e-mailed on June 25 that he regretted that "a political solution decision was made before my friends and I had a chance to completely wipe your cartoon character of a leader off the face of this earth."

One AOL user sent Saddam a one-word message: "Imminent." Attached to the Aug. 6 e-mail was a photograph of an atomic mushroom cloud.

An Internet user from London chided Saddam for hoarding Iraq's oil wealth for himself while the country's citizens die of starvation. "You really are a most cynical regime," wrote the author of the e-mail, which was dated Aug. 10.

Comments about Iraq's oil resources figured into several of the messages. An Australian resident suggested in July that Saddam cut off oil to neighboring Turkey, which the message's author said was America's No. 2 ally after Israel. The e-mail said Iraq could also tighten the screws on Turkey "if they cooperate with America" by threatening to use biological and chemicals weapons on Turkey.

Though some analysts say Iraq's U.N.-mandated Persian Gulf War reparation payments -- which currently stand at more than $43 billion -- have mortgaged the future of Iraq's economy, a financial services firm in Canada was apparently still hopeful.

In a July 1 e-mail addressed to "Iraqi Presidency," the chairman of the company proposed a "future relationship" with Iraq.

The company, located in Montreal, specializes in "the movement and leveraging of financial instruments" as well as "conversion of currencies" and "offshore activities," according to the e-mail.

One pragmatic AOL user urged Saddam on July 28 to cooperate fully with U.N. inspectors as the best way to avoid war.

"Please allow the weapons inspectors into your country so that the illegitimate leader of my country, the U.S.A., who perpetrated a coup and stole the election, will not have an excuse to attack your country. If you would do that it would take away his power and weaken him and make you look like the bigger man," she wrote.

Another Internet user, who identified himself as a 20-year-old Mormon from Utah, wrote that he prayed for the day when Iraqis have plentiful food, medicine, clothing and other necessities.

But the author of a July 19 message said he was frustrated about his inability to help bring about such changes.

"To me it is all politics. Wars and disputes are not about right and wrong, nor are they about good versus evil, but they are about power," he wrote.

Read more!

Meet the new Zionists


The members of the Christian Coalition of America are some of the most passionate defenders of Israel in the United States. There's just one catch: they want to convert all Jews to Christianity. Matthew Engel reports on an unholy alliance

Matthew Engel
Monday October 28, 2002
The Guardian

At first sight, the scene is very familiar: one that happens in Washington DC and other major American cities all the time. On the platform, an Israeli student is telling thousands of supporters how the horrors of the year have only reinforced his people's determination. "Despite the terror attacks, they'll never drive us away out of our God-given land," he says.

This is greeted with whoops and hollers and waving of Israeli flags and the blowing of the shofar, the Jewish ceremonial ram's horn. Then comes the mayor of Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert, who is received even more rapturously. "God is with us. You are with us." And there are more whoops and hollers and flag-waves and shofar-blows.

This support is not offered with any ifs or buts either. The placards round the hall insist that every inch of the Holy Land should belong to Israel and that there should never be a Palestinian state. These assertions are backed up by biblical quotations. It could be a rally in Jerusalem for those Israelis who think Ariel Sharon is a dangerous softie.

But something very strange is going on here. There are thousands of people cheering for Israel in the huge Washington Convention Centre. But not one of them appears to be Jewish, at least not in the conventional sense. For this is the annual gathering of a very non-Jewish organisation indeed: the Christian Coalition of America.

And the strangest thing of all is not their support, which is a novel and important development in American politics, but the thinking that lies behind it - which is altogether more chilling to Israel's traditional supporters than all the cheers and flags would suggest. You might also describe it as downright weird.

In a country where weekly church attendance is about 20 times the level it is in Britain (40% v 2%), the relationship between religion and politics in the US is intense. And there is little doubt that, last spring, when President Bush dithered and dallied over his Middle East policy before finally coming down on Israel's side, he was influenced not by the overrated Jewish vote, but by the opinion of Christian "religious conservatives" - the self-description of between 15 and 18% of the electorate. When the president demanded that Israel withdraw its tanks from the West Bank in April, the White House allegedly received 100,000 angry emails from Christian conservatives.

A decade ago, when the president's father was in the White House, his eldest son's election-time job was to act as unofficial ambassador to this group, offer assurances that they and the administration were at one on such matters as abortion and pornography and prayer in schools, the issues they like to group together as "family values". US-Israel relations, which reached rock bottom when George Bush Sr was president and the obstreperous Yitzhak Shamir was Israeli prime minister, were never an issue.

What's changed? Not the Book of Genesis, which is what Michael Brown, the coalition's church liaison officer, quotes when you ask him to explain the support for Israel. "And I will make of thee a great nation," the Lord told Abraham, "And I will bless them that bless thee and curse them that curse thee."

On the conference floor, however, the explanation has more to do with the end of the world than the start of it. What has really changed is the emergence of the doctrine known as "dispensationalism", popularised in the novels of the Rev Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins. LaHaye and Jenkins may not mean much to you or to the readers of the New York Times Book Review, but the ninth volume of their Left Behind series sold three million hardback copies in the US last year, eclipsing John Grisham.

Central to the theory - based on a reading of scripture Brown would prefer not to discuss - is the Rapture, the second coming of Christ, which will presage the end of the world. A happy ending depends on the conversion of the Jews. And that, to cut a long story very short, can only happen if the Jews are in possession of all the lands given to them by God. In other words, these Christians are supporting the Jews in order to abolish them.

Oh yes, agreed Marion Pollard, a charming lady from Dallas who was selling hand-painted Jerusalem crystal in the exhibition hall at the conference. "God is the sovereign. He'll do what he pleases. But based on the scripture, those are the guidelines." She calls herself a fervent supporter of Israel, as does Lewis Hall of North Carolina. "I believe they do have to accept the Messiah." And if they don't? "I believe they will when they know who He is. I believe that one day they are going to wake up. It might take a third world war to do that."

Meanwhile, outside the hall was Leanne Cariker from Oklahoma, carrying a placard saying "Just Say No! To A Palestinian State". Her support of Israel is based on the same premise. "The Bible says there is no way to worship God except through the son," she explains.

To add to the bizarreness of this scene, she was standing opposite another group of demonstrators: anti-Zionist Hasidic Jews from Brooklyn in long black coats, who oppose the state of Israel based on their own reading of the Bible. Confused? You should be. Poor Leanne Cariker was. "I'm not against them," she wailed. "I'm for them. I believe they're God's chosen people."

You might think these Christian activists represent the furthest shores of American politico-religious wackiness. The politicians don't think so. This conference began with a videotaped benediction straight from the Oval office. Some of the most influential republicans in Congress addressed the gathering including - not once, but twice - Tom DeLay, who is hot favourite to take over as majority leader of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections on November 5, thus becoming arguably the most powerful man on Capitol Hill.

"Are you tired of all this, are you?" he yelled to the audience. "Nooooooo!" they roared back. "Not when you're standing up for Jews and Jesus, that's for sure," he replied.

Jews habitually do not stand up for Jesus (although this conference did have a sprinkling of Messianic Jews, who do just that). But most Jewish leaders have opted to shrug, accept the Christians' support and let them whistle for their conversions. That certainly goes for Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister, reportedly greeted "like a rock star" by Christian evangelicals in Jerusalem last month. More thoughtful leaders are at least concerned.

"I'm going to take the support because Israel needs it," said Rabbi Jerome Epstein, vice-president of the US's conservative (in this context middle-of-the-road) Jewish organisation, the United Synagogue. "Their theology is in a different world. We can cope with it. If I convince them not to support Israel, are they going to give up their attempt to convert Jews? No."

Not everyone accepts this. "They don't love the real Jewish people," the author Gershom Gorenberg told the CBS programme 60 Minutes. "They love us as characters in their story, in their play, and that's not who we are. If you listen to the drama that they are describing, essentially it's a five-act play in which the Jews disappear in the fourth act."

This is not something speakers at the rally are anxious to emphasise. DeLay was followed by Pat Robertson, the coalition's founder, sometime presidential candidate and the very personification of the successful American TV evangelist: blow-dried hair, stick-on smile, expensive suit, honeyed voice and certainty of tone.

Robertson prefers to dwell on Arab plans to drive Israel into the sea and the iniquity of Yasser Arafat and "his gang of thugs". But he also cites the stories of Joshua and David to prove Israel's ownership of Jerusalem "long before anyone had heard of Mohammed".

Robertson has now retired from the coalition, leaving it in the hands of Roberta Combs, a grandmother from South Carolina who has the longest and most scarlet fingernails I have ever seen. She scratches them across the table when she wants to make a point. In an interview, her most vigorous point is in support of Bush. "I think he's a great president. I think he's a caring person. First of all, he's a Christian, which I identify with. He's pro-family, he's pro-life, he's a friend of mine."

Combs is not in the Robertson league as a communicator. And when I shift the conversation round to Israel, she discovers an urgent need to attend to her toddler grandson, leaving me with her aide Michael Brown. The prevailing view is that the coalition, a powerful voice in the early 90s, is not the force it was.

This is partly held to be due to her failings, and partly to the rhetorical excesses of Robertson and his ally Jerry Falwell, leader of the Moral Majority, especially in September last year when Falwell, on Robertson's TV show, blamed the attacks on, among others, "the pagans and the abortionists and the feminists and the gays and the lesbians".

The other week Falwell called Mohammed a terrorist, which might have accounted for his unexplained non-appearance at the conference. But even the coalition's most tireless opponent does not sense any kind of victory. Rev Barry Lynn, himself an ordained minister and head of the pressure group Americans United for Separation of Church and State, likes to start his speeches by saying: "The good news is that the Christian Coalition is fundamentally collapsing. The bad news is that the people who ran it are all in the government." Whenever he goes over to the department of justice, he keeps running into Pat Robertson's old lawyers.

The linkage between the Christian right and the Republican party is getting ever stronger, especially in the electorally crucial states of the south and west. And Lynn is alarmed at the prospects for the midterm elections. The Republicans are quite likely to regain control of the Senate, removing the roadblock that currently stops the president appointing conservative judges ("impartial judges", according to most Republicans; "rabid rightwingers," according to their opponents) to lower courts and, when the expected vacancies arise, to the supreme court. This will give the right, and most particularly the religious right, unprecedented influence over all three branches of government in Washington.

"Karl Rove [Bush's political guru] has said publicly you cannot alienate your base. You cannot alienate that 18% of religious conservatives. You don't mess with these people," says Lynn. "They want you to be just as they are. And Bush is just as they are. He may waffle on one or two issues, such as stem-cell research. But fundamentally he comes down on their side."

In the short term this might not alter American life all that much. It might take a generation for the Supreme Court to roll back the restrictions that, for instance, forbid prayer in school. The abortion debate is for the moment dormant. Neither the churches nor the government show any sign of imposing teenage sexual abstinence any time soon. Not before, say, the conversion of the Jews.

One of the points Robertson likes to emphasise is to reject accusations that the coalition's support of Israel is a "Johnny come lately experience". "We've been with them through thick and thin," he says. This is a point made by several of his supporters, one of whom presses on me a little booklet with quotes from Christian theologians on the subject. He especially recommends the one from Jonathan Edwards, the 18th-century puritan divine. "The Jews in all their dispersions shall cast away their old infidelity," said Edwards, "and shall have their hearts wonderfully changed, and abhor themselves for their past unbelief and obstinacy. They shall flow together to the blessed Jesus."

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

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Thursday, October 24, 2002

'Coming soon to your op-ed page: Adolf Hitler'


Thursday, October 24 @ 09:54:09 EDT By Peter Lee

Coming soon to your op-ed page: Adolf Hitler.

His mission: justify war in the Middle East.

President Bush has virtually exhausted his political capital and credibility stumbling from one rationale to another for the Iraq war, desperately seeking an issue that will resonate with American and world opinion.



The 9/11 rationale, which addressed the total lack of evidence linking Saddam and al Qaeda with the slogan "No Link? No Problem!" has been undercut by renewed terrorist activity around the world. Crushing a dilapidated Middle Eastern dictatorship while thousands of radicalized, militant Muslims flock to stateless terror cells around the world isn't anybody's idea of a potent strategy.

The weapons of mass destruction rationale, despite efforts to overcome its most gaping flaw (Saddam has none) by moving it to the future where he might get them and might use them, has fallen to earth quicker than one of his killer bomb drones aimed at America's heartland (range 200 miles; thanks for asking).

The mighty American eagle does as it pleases and none dare say nay rationale of triumphant imperialism took a big knock from, of all places, North Korea. Apparently you can have real nuclear weapons, pose a mortal threat to an American ally less than 5 minutes away, have an ICBM capability that justifies a $68 billion Star Wars boondoggle in the Alaskan tundra, and still get the diplomatic pussy-foot treatment -- if your name's not Saddam.

The let's push aside a mountain of corpses and guzzle our fill at Iraq's oil trough rationale is no doubt welcome to the shareholders of Exxon Mobil and our parched and panting SUVs, but really isn't fit for public consumption.

So who's left to make the case for an immensely expensive, risky, and unpopular war?

Adolf Hitler.

Because the most effective weapon George W. Bush has left to energize a significant pro-war faction and to blunt the anti-war movement is the specter of a second Holocaust in the Middle East.

It is a risky and probably hopeless strategy.

President Bush is probably loath to make the case himself. In the whole run-up to the Iraq war he has assiduously avoided the impression he is carrying Arial Sharon's water.

George W. Bush does not want to tell the American people we are going to send 250,000 of our troops and spend $270 billion of our money to help Israel with its security problem, while the Israeli armed forces stay home and roam the West Bank to see if there are any more buildings left to knock over.

The closest he'll probably come is this, in his bald and artless fashion as reported by the AP on October 21:

"'(Unlike North Korea, Saddam) wants to have a nuclear weapon. He has made it very clear he hates the United States and, as importantly, he hates friends of ours,' the president said."

The only thing a statement like this is going to do is annoy the South Koreans, who apparently aren't good enough friends of ours to warrant a war effort from the world's only superpower.

What's left is to downplay the flimsy security rationales for the Iraq war and repackage it as a moral imperative of the civilized world. The Middle East must be cleansed of the genocidal maniacs seeking to recreate in Israel the only universally acknowledged symbol of pure evil in modern history -- the Holocaust.

And the anti-war movement must be divided, confused, and discredited with the charge of anti-Semitism.

The case will be made by the pro-war pundits and columnists whose op-eds and talk show appearances bloom like ranks and ranks of identical, scentless flowers after Wolfowitz and Perle shovel the latest blend of fertilizer on them.

So look for a lot of in-depth think pieces about the horrors Hezbollah and their ilk (worse than Osama! Worse than Saddam!) have in store for Israel.

And a flock of profiles of sinister Iraqi, Iranian, and Saudi theocratic, intellectual, and political authorities and obscenely wealthy Arab merchants and financiers who reject Israel's right to exist. (They say Israel only has the right to die!)

And a flood of backgrounders about the existential struggle Israel will face when all the Arab states become totally unglued by fear, anger, and instability and unleash the dogs of war against it.

And how Americans have to step up and do the right thing.

Regardless of the human and financial cost.

Like we did...against Hitler.

This is one of those calls to arms that works on a strictly emotional level. Nobody likes to puss out against Hitler. Even if the Soviet Union isn't around to do the heavy lifting this time.

But the Middle East is like a maze of funhouse mirrors where everybody looks like Hitler.

Sharon's answer is to smash all the mirrors. Then he sees Hitlers in the shards. So he smashes the shards. If only someone would help him crush all the shards into powder. Then Israel will have security, peace, and moral clarity.

But Sharon has only proved adept at creating despair, dead bodies, flattened buildings, angry Arabs, and a persistent security crisis. A crisis he hopes to solve somehow by escalating his failed policy of assassination, intimidation, incursion, and occupation to a regional level with American help.

Sharon can only lead America to hell. It is the only path he knows.

If we follow him we will emerge years later with nothing but an awareness of the enormous human and material losses we have incurred and the chances we have lost.

The American people realize this. And they'll reject the call to support Sharon's security agenda with a Middle East war. Not because Americans are anti-Semitic. Because we are patriotic.

And we understand that Israel is better served by restraint, a U.S.-brokered peace process, and a manageable security problem than it is by escalation, a massive, U.S.-led war, and a desperate security crisis.

The Middle East is a quagmire into which immense rivers of blood and iron can disappear without a trace. America's billions and its armed might cannot redeem a bankrupt vision of security through violence by extending its domain of death and chaos from the Mediterranean to the banks of the Oxus.

There's only one person in the last century who tried to reshape the Western world like that. And he failed.

His name, of course, was Adolf Hitler.

Copyright 2002 Peter Lee
Peter Lee is the creator of the anti-war satire and commentary website Halcyon Days. He can be reached at halcyondays@attbi.com

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Wednesday, October 23, 2002

Israeli retaliation targets olive harvest and waterholes


Chris McGreal in Jerusalem
Wednesday October 23, 2002
The Guardian

Israel signalled yesterday that in deference to Washington's campaign against Iraq it will hold back from its usual tough response following Monday's suicide bombing which killed 14 bus passengers.

But it swiftly made life harder for many Palestinians with a ban on drilling for water because it said the Palestinian Authority leader is conducting a "water intifada". It also barred olive picking at the height of the harvest.

The ban on bore holes is particularly tough as it means many Palestinians are unable to irrigate crops. Some villages will be deprived of drinking water.

After the last major suicide bombing a month ago, Israeli tanks again laid siege to Mr Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah, reducing much of it to rubble until the Palestinian leader was trapped in one isolated building with about 200 followers. The Israelis would have been content to leave him there, but the White House pressed prime minister Ariel Sharon to lift the siege because it was undermining the US campaign to win Arab backing for an attack on Iraq.

After Monday's bus bombing, in which some of the victims were burned alive in the inferno that engulfed the vehicle when its fuel tank blew up, the Israelis apparently did not need to be asked to consider an alternative reaction.

The interior minister, Eli Yishai, said Israel is taking American interests into account in deciding its response.

"There are those who say that we need to react now and immediately, with all power and all force," Mr Yishai told Israeli army radio. "On the other hand, we could cause difficulties for the Americans. If the Americans attack Iraq, it's in our interest as well as that of the Americans."

But the government apparently found other ways to make the Palestinians pay, even though it denied any linkage, when the infrastructure minister and leader of the extreme rightwing National Religious party, Effie Eitam, ordered a ban on Palestinians drilling for water in the West Bank.

A member of the Palestinian Hydrology Group, Abdel Rahman Tamimi, said the move prevents many in the occupied territories from irrigating fields and will deprive some villages of their only access to water.

"If they apply this thing, that means most of the Palestinian farmers in the north of the West Bank and the Jordan valley will not be able to pump water for their fields. Some of those wells are also used for drinking," he said. "If it is allowed to go on, most of the land in the north will be under threat of desertification and then people will have to leave. That's what the Israelis want, of course."

Mr Eitam said he issued the order because the Palestinians are conducting a water intifada. He said the authority had failed to build purifying facilities in the hope of "polluting Israel's ground water", and he accused it of "stealing water" from Israel and Jewish settlers in the occupied territories.

Mr Tamimi sees it differently. "The Palestinians have been reluctant to expand the water treatment plants for a reason: the Israelis want to force the Palestinian water authority to connect the Jewish settlements on the West Bank to those treatment plants. It's a way of trying to force the Palestinians to recognise the settlements as legal and legitimate."

Mr Eitam said the ban was imposed in consultation with the defence minister, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, who imposed his own restrictions yesterday by barring the picking of olives mid-way through an already difficult harvest.

Technically, the ban has been put in place because the army says it lacks resources to protect Palestinians from Jewish settlers who have been attacking pickers across the West Bank. But the Palestinians say that there is a lack of political will to protect them, and that the bar on olive picking will have a devastating impact on a key source of food and cash for many communities.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

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Tuesday, October 22, 2002

SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/91885_mcgrory20.shtml

Bush plays favorites with tyrants



Monday, October 21, 2002

By MARY MCGRORY
SYNDICATED COLUMNIST

WASHINGTON -- At a glance, it would seem as if the warlords in the White House are as clueless as the frustrated police pursuing the shooter who has been rampaging through Washington's suburbs for the past 2 1/2 weeks.

George W. Bush, who had been doing a credible imitation of Alexander the Great conquering the known world, was stopped in his tracks by North Korea. Yes, representatives of Pyongyang's demented leader told a State Department envoy, they are working on a nuclear bomb.

Iraq, Bush's obsession, has been six months away from a nuke for years, and Bush wants to bomb, invade and occupy it. But here's North Korea's Kim Jong Il, who fits perfectly Bush's description of Saddam Hussein, as "a homicidal dictator who is addicted to weapons of mass destruction." Bush doesn't want to raise a finger against him. "We seek a peaceful solution," said he.

We do? How come?

It is true that there is a difference between Saddam and Kim Jong Il. Saddam is power-mad; Kim Jong Il is mad, certifiably so, which could make him even more dangerous. And his nuclear program -- aided and abetted by our principal ally in the war against terror, Pakistan -- is farther along than Iraq's. Moving into the broken promises area, North Korea has been no piker: Saddam Hussein has broken more U.N. resolutions, but Kim Jong Il violated the all-important 1994 agreement on non-proliferation.

As for mass murder of their own people, they are twins. The president has been telling us of the crimes of Saddam, the gassing of the Kurds and the cruelties toward his real and official family. Kim Jong Il has chosen another means of exterminating his citizenry. In the wake of flood and drought, North Korea faced famine, and some think as many as 2 million died. Kim manipulated humanitarian aid programs and starved people he deemed non-essential.

Bush has no comment.

What has been drained off his crusade for sending the bombers over Baghdad is the moral imperative of regime change. If Saddam has to be removed because he is so loathsome, why not Kim Jong Il? You had to go to the small tent city outside police headquarters in Rockville, Md., where frustrated cops brief press from all over the world about what they don't know, to find a more flummoxed crew than the White House warlords.

The most recent shooting was of a 47-year-old woman who had survived cancer; she was felled by a single shot as she and her husband loaded their car with Home Depot purchases. The horrible event was thought to have a redeeming feature -- a harvest of clues and eyewitness accounts. But it all vanished. Chagrined officers and officials said the cream-colored van, the olive-skinned man and the broken tail-light were imagined and not seen.

Bush is moving fast these days. The commander in chief spends all his time waging war on Democrats. He should perhaps pause long enough to explain to those in Congress why he withheld the news about North Korea's nuclear program from them for 12 days, making sure that the war resolution was safely passed without any distracting revelations.

Democrats who voted for the resolution, particularly those who railed against it while doing so, might find an explanation to mitigate their embarrassment. They were prodded to a roll call by Bush's hard sell about the importance of every minute; they were also being hammered on the right for being "appeasers." Democrat Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, despite a stiff Republican challenge, bucked the tide and voted against the war. He is so far not paying any price. Even pro-war voters have commended him for showing guts.

Voters long have been accustomed to living with a double standard from both parties in dealing with troublesome foreigners. Little Cuba is still caught in a 40-year-old embargo because of its communist dictator, while humongous China, with its brazen human rights violations, religious persecution and ruthless repression, is a partner.

But as we barrel down the road to war with Iraq, maybe we ought to quiz our unilateralist president about why it is necessary for us to bomb, invade and occupy Iraq while North Korea gets the striped-pants treatment. Is it because North Korea has a million men under arms? Is it because Kim Jong Il never threatened to kill Bush's father, or because he has no oil, or is not a Muslim?

Maybe we should ask the advocates who dreamed for 10 years of invading Iraq. Do Richard Perle, Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz believe in equal opportunity for tyrants? Their leader seems to be pointing the other way.

Mary McGrory is a columnist with The Washington Post. Copyright 2002 The Washington Post.

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Wednesday, October 16, 2002

Rumsfeld's Style, Goals Strain Ties In Pentagon


'Transformation' Effort Spawns Issues of Control

By Vernon Loeb and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 16, 2002; Page A01

When Marine Lt. Gen. Gregory S. Newbold was preparing earlier this year to leave his position as director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, his boss, Gen. Richard B. Myers, nominated an Air Force officer to succeed him.

But when Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld that Lt. Gen. Ronald E. Keys would be the next director of operations, or "J-3," one of the most important jobs in the U.S. military, he got a rude surprise. Not so fast, said Rumsfeld, who in a sharp departure from previous practice personally interviews all nominees for three-star and four-star positions in the military. Give me someone else, Rumsfeld told Myers after twice interviewing Keys.

Myers complied and came up with a selection more to Rumsfeld's liking, Air Force Lt. Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, ending a long-standing practice of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs naming his own top subordinates.

Senior military officers now recount Keys's demise to illustrate a pronounced civilian-military divide at the Pentagon under Rumsfeld's leadership. Numerous officers complain bitterly that their best advice is being disregarded by someone who has spent most of the last 25 years away from the military. Rumsfeld first served as secretary of defense from 1975 to 1977, in the Ford administration.

Indeed, nearly two dozen current and former top officers and civilian officials said in interviews that there is a huge discrepancy between the outside perception of Rumsfeld -- the crisp, no-nonsense defense secretary who became a media star through his briefings on the Afghan war -- and the way he is seen inside the Pentagon. Many senior officers on the Joint Staff and in all branches of the military describe Rumsfeld as frequently abusive and indecisive, trusting only a tiny circle of close advisers, seemingly eager to slap down officers with decades of distinguished service. The unhappiness is so pervasive that all three service secretaries are said to be deeply frustrated by a lack of autonomy and contemplating leaving by the end of the year.

Rumsfeld declined to be interviewed for this article.

His disputes with parts of the top brass involve style, the conduct of military operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and sharply different views about how and whether to "transform" today's armed forces. But what the fights boil down to is civilian control of a defense establishment that Rumsfeld is said to believe had become too independent and risk-averse during eight years under President Bill Clinton.

What makes this more than a bureaucratic dispute, however, is that it is influencing the Pentagon's internal debate over a possible invasion of Iraq, with some officers questioning whether their concerns about the dangers of urban warfare and other aspects of a potential conflict are being sufficiently weighed -- or dismissed as typical military risk aversion.

The dispute also promises to have a huge impact in the coming year over the fate of hugely expensive weapons systems, with Stephen A. Cambone, a top Rumsfeld deputy, now recommending more than $10 billion in savings by cutting or delaying the Air Force's F-22 stealth fighter, the Navy's next generation aircraft carrier, and three Army programs, the Comanche reconnaissance helicopter, the Stryker wheeled combat vehicle and the Future Combat System.

These tensions were straining relations between the uniformed military and Rumsfeld prior to Sept. 11, 2001, but were partially submerged by the Afghan war and other counterattacks on terrorism. They have now reemerged as the Pentagon plans for a possible war in the Persian Gulf and for a fiscal 2004 budget that is in danger of being swamped by war costs and long-deferred expenditures on modernization, new weapons and Rumsfeld's desire to transform the military into a 21st-century force.

"There is a nearly universal feeling among the officer corps that the inner circle is closed, not tolerant of ideas it doesn't already share, and determined to impose its ideas, regardless of military doubts," said Loren B. Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute who has close ties to defense contractors and the military.

"All of the bad blood of last year is coming back in a very big way," said one former Pentagon official.

All three service secretaries were recruited from private industry to bring "best business practices" to the Pentagon and promised autonomy in making management reforms. But all three find their actions constrained by Rumsfeld and what is referred to as his small "palace guard," according to Pentagon insiders.

Air Force Secretary James Roche has felt he lacked input on decisions about the service's centerpiece program, the F-22, senior officers and defense contractors say. Navy Secretary Gordon England has expressed an interest in a top job at the proposed Department of Homeland Security, and Army Secretary Thomas E. White, a former executive at Enron Corp., has been tarnished by the Enron scandal, his failure to promptly divest his Enron holdings, and a controversy over his use of Army aircraft for personal business.

Presiding over a Pentagon thick with tension is an ironic position for an administration that came to office promising to show new respect for the military. In Congress and elsewhere in Washington, some now are questioning whether the military feels free to give its best advice to the administration -- or whether that advice is being welcomed.

"I've heard repeatedly about the lack of trust between the secretary and the uniformed officers," said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a member of the Armed Services Committee and a former Army officer who commanded an infantry company in the 82nd Airborne Division. "That, I think is a problem," particularly, he added, with the administration contemplating an invasion of Iraq.

"If there is an atmosphere where contrary views aren't well received, you may move into an operation that isn't well-advised," a three-star officer warned.

Myers, in an interview, denied that he or any other senior officers feel constrained in speaking their mind to Rumsfeld or raising objections about pending military operations. "It has never been easier to express our opinion, our thoughts, with any secretary," Myers said. "There is ample opportunity, in fact, encouragement, to present other views and disagree. . . . I think it's very, very healthy."

Victoria Clarke, Rumsfeld's spokeswoman, cited a series of "spectacular accomplishments" at the Pentagon -- a new defense strategy, a nuclear posture review, a restructured missile defense program, far more realistic budgeting procedures, and an ambitious agenda for "transforming" the military -- and said they simply could not have happened without close civilian-military relations.

"It's extraordinary that those things got done, in the face of amazing resistance to change, at the same time we were prosecuting the war on terrorism," Clarke said, adding that Rumsfeld "not only welcomes, but encourages, dissent."
Rumsfeld's Revolution

While issues of great substance lie at the heart of Rumsfeld's unsettled relationship with the military, discussion of the current environment at the Pentagon invariably begins with assessments of the defense secretary's powerful personal style.

Even Rumsfeld's detractors admit he is a man of considerable energy and intellect who is pushing the right issues and raising many of the right questions at the Pentagon. Rumsfeld, 70, is universally praised for his handling of the war in Afghanistan, where he and other members of the Bush Cabinet insisted on a bold plan for toppling the Taliban and driving al Qaeda out of the country.

What appears at times to be indecisiveness on Rumsfeld's part, according to one senior officer, stems from his deep personal involvement in operational planning. "The guy wants to see [a plan] at the 30 percent level, and the 60 percent level, so it's become a very iterative process, and it's been hard for the bureaucracy to adjust to that," the officer said. "It's good in the sense that the man is talented and has tremendous insight into the political process. The only time it's bad is having" to make decisions rapidly in the context of ongoing operations.

But the result, said one White House aide, is that "it's hard to get decisions out of the Pentagon, because he doesn't delegate."

It has become a truism in national security circles that Rumsfeld has been a better secretary of war than secretary of defense. Rumsfeld has two dominant priorities. The first is reshaping the U.S. military from a heavy, industrial-age force designed in the Cold War to an agile, information-age force capable of defeating more elusive adversaries anywhere on the globe.

Rumsfeld's second priority, about which he has been less open, is reasserting civilian control over a military establishment that had grown autonomous -- and, many believe, too cautious -- during the Clinton years. Indeed, Rumsfeld has pushed throughout the war on terrorism for bolder plans from the military. Under his stewardship, war planning has become far more effective and imaginative, said a former official who otherwise is critical of Rumsfeld.

"This guy really is trying to get [the Pentagon] to work for him," said one former defense official. "I don't think he's chosen the right path. But it's not a question of him being the devil and everyone else is a misunderstood angel."

If Rumsfeld returned to the Pentagon in January 2001 predisposed to see senior military officers as dull and uncreative, as many believe, he has since shown a willingness to reassess their capability. Officers, even those unhappy with Rumsfeld's approach, say relations between his office and the uniformed branches have improved as both sides have come to better understand how to interact, thanks in part to the crucible of the war in Afghanistan.

"Rumsfeld has changed over time. He's still cantankerous, but he's not necessarily as combative as he was at one point in time," one three-star officer said. "There is more mutual respect."

Others are far more pessimistic. "Things are more fouled up [at the Pentagon] than I've ever seen them," said one former defense official sympathetic to Rumsfeld.

"The depth of disaffection is really quite striking," added one defense consultant. "I think Rumsfeld is courting a rebellion."

Two other people who have dealt with Rumsfeld said there is still a glass bowl in the secretary's office. Rumsfeld likes to tell people that if he says anything nice about anyone, a coin is put in the bowl. Rumsfeld likes to point out that the bowl is almost always empty. It puzzles some generals that he would take pride in such a hard-line approach.

"It is," said one, "a heck of a way to run an organization."
Joint Staff in the Cross Hairs

Rumsfeld's primary objective in reasserting civilian control over the Pentagon has been in reining in a Joint Staff that the defense secretary, according to associates, believed had become too powerful and independent of civilian control, with officers acting at times as though they were not subordinate to their civilian bosses.

The Joint Staff, an umbrella organization that draws from all four services, consists of about 1,200 officers and other personnel and plays a critical role in overseeing the daily activities of the U.S. military around the world. The staff works for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But Rumsfeld has made it clear that, in his Pentagon, the chairman works for him.

Since Rumsfeld's first tour as defense secretary in the mid-1970s, the Joint Staff has grown enormously in power and capability. During the Ford administration, it was something of a backwater where the services placed officers considered second-rate. But after the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act greatly empowered the chairman, making him the formal leader of the Joint Chiefs and explicitly the principal military adviser to the president, the staff began getting the best the services had to offer, in part because that law barred officers lacking "Joint" time from becoming top generals or admirals.

Rumsfeld, say people who have dealt with him over the last two years, saw the Joint Staff as sometimes unresponsive to civilian leadership, even asserting its own policy positions at interagency meetings. He wasn't alone in that feeling, recalled one officer at the Pentagon, who said that Joint Staff officers sometimes seemed to have the attitude that "the suits don't need to know this, they stay in our lane, we stay in ours."

Under Rumsfeld, the civilians are no longer cut out.

Rumsfeld, early on, tried to gain control over the key position of director of the Joint Staff, the person who helps determine the daily agenda of the U.S. military leadership. When his move to oust the incumbent met opposition, he backed down. But he succeeded in making the point that the defense secretary would be intimately involved in deciding who filled the top positions. And he prevailed when it came time this year to pick a new J-3 to replace Gen. Newbold, who had told colleagues he found the job deeply frustrating partly because of Rumsfeld's constant bypassing of the Joint Staff.

Rumsfeld made it clear that he did not feel Keys, the general first nominated by Myers to succeed Newbold, was suited for the job. One three-star officer said Rumsfeld considered Keys unimaginative, while a four-star officer said the defense secretary considered Keys arrogant.

"He has been relentless and aggressive in putting these guys in their place," concluded one former Pentagon official. Myers also has come in for criticism from other generals who think he has failed to stand up to Rumsfeld, and some point to the Keys nomination to make their case.

"In the Rumsfeld Pentagon, the chairman works as staff to the secretary of defense," the former official added.

Myers said he has heard such complaints but that he finds them voiced by officers who do not understand the closeness of the relationships that exist between him and Rumsfeld, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz and Marine Gen. Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

"I think the relationship between the Joint Staff and the Office of the Secretary of Defense staff is really very good and very close, and also has matured over time," Myers said. "If I didn't feel like I had my say to my boss and had an opportunity to be influential, I wouldn't be here."

At the moment, Rumsfeld is working to strip the Joint Staff of a series of its offices -- legislative liaison, legal counsel and public affairs. These have given the military leadership a degree of autonomy by providing it direct pipelines to Congress, to other parts of the government and to the media.

Clarke, Rumsfeld's spokeswoman, denied Rumsfeld has singled out the Joint Staff in an attempt to diminish its power. "The secretary thinks the entire department, civilian and military, was lethargic, bureaucratic, not fully addressing the dramatically changed world in which we find ourselves," she said. "And he has appropriately lit fires under everybody and said, 'Ladies and gentlemen, the stakes around here are very high.' And some people respond well to that and some people don't."
The Army in Opposition

The biggest battle facing Rumsfeld is with the Army, the nation's largest military service, which effectively has gone into opposition against the secretary of defense.

The Army, for institutional and historical reasons, is the most skeptical of the services of Rumsfeld's drive to move the military into the information age. Rumsfeld has complained that the Army is too resistant to change, while Army officers claim the defense secretary does not sufficiently appreciate the value of large, armored conventional ground forces.

"Does he really hate the Army?" asked one Army officer, obviously pained by the question. "I don't know."

The relationship, never close, hit the rocks when Rumsfeld let it be known in April that he had decided to name Gen. John M. Keane, the Army's vice chief of staff, as its next chief, 15 months before its current chief, Gen. Eric K. Shinseki, was scheduled to retire. This immediately made Shinseki a lame duck and undercut his ambitious "transformation" agenda, which he had set forth in late 1999.

"I do feel that this secretaryship has been very hard on this chief and has undermined his ability to bring about the kind of transformation that Shinseki envisioned," said Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee. "Clearly there's a need for some repairing of relations between the department and the Army."

Next, Rumsfeld killed the Army's new mobile howitzer system, the Crusader, on grounds that it was too heavy to deploy to distant battlefields and not "transformational" enough to be relevant on the future battlefield.

Army leaders had coveted Crusader for years as a weapon system that would finally make the Army second to none in artillery firepower. They were particularly steamed at how Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz killed the system, keeping the Army in the dark about what was happening until Congress was ready to vote on the fiscal 2003 budget.

In recent weeks, another dispute has arisen, with officials in Rumsfeld's office expressing concerns about the effectiveness of the new Stryker wheeled combat vehicle designed to replace the tank in the latest Army fighting unit called the Interim Brigade Combat Team. Cambone, Rumsfeld's closest aide, has proposed cutting in half the Army's plan to field six of these combat teams, saving $4.5 billion in Stryker procurement.

The Interim Brigade Combat Team is Shinseki's bridge between the heavy Army of the Cold War and the Army of the future. But Cambone is also zeroing in on two programs at the heart of that future Army, or Objective Force, proposing a 50 percent cut in the Army's Comanche helicopter and a two-year delay in fielding its Future Combat System.

But Rumsfeld's office, aided by former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who is close to Rumsfeld and deeply interested in how to reform the Army, is now questioning whether Stryker measures up.

"The mood is so morose these days" in the Army, concluded a retired general.

Already on edge, Army generals were dismayed when some Republican defense experts suggested that invading Iraq would be easy. And on top of everything else, the Army now is trying to figure out how it would supply tens of thousands of troops to keep the peace in Iraq should President Saddam Hussein be ousted in a U.S. invasion.

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

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X marks the despot



Bombing Iraq into democracy could well prove counterproductive, writes Brian Whitaker

Brian Whitaker
Wednesday October 16, 2002
The Guardian

It must have been extremely tedious work counting ballot papers in Iraq last night.

With not one of the 11 million or so registered voters allegedly risking a show of opposition to Saddam Hussein or even putting a cross in the wrong box by mistake, there was nothing to break the monotony. Except, perhaps, for trying to count those super-loyal voters who chose to mark their papers in blood rather than the customary ink or pencil.

And so the Iraqi president has obtained another seven-year mandate - helped in no small measure by the lack of any opposing candidate and the absence of votes from millions in the Kurdish north, where Baghdad no longer has administrative control.

Many Iraqis, regardless of their feelings about Saddam, viewed this particular election as a way of showing national solidarity against the threat of a US-led invasion.

Outside Iraq, on the other hand, many see this ludicrous exercise, and the unbelievable 100% vote of confidence in the Iraqi leader, as further evidence of the need for regime change in Baghdad.

After the coming war, a senior member of the UK Conservative party remarked the other day, Iraq will turn into "a beacon of democracy in the Middle East".

Others, particularly on the US right, and in Israel, have said much the same thing. Attacking Iraq is not just about weapons of mass destruction - it is the starting point for democratising the entire region.

This line of argument sounds good until you actually think about it. Wars are always more palatable if people can be persuaded that the future of democracy is at stake. But there's a big difference between a war to preserve our own way of life against an outside threat and a war to impose democracy on others.

One of the snags of the 1991 conflict over Kuwait was that it could not be portrayed as a war for democracy until the exiled emir called his people together and promised to restore parliamentary government once the country had been liberated.

"There's not a single democracy in the 22 nations of the Arab League," an official in the US administration told the BBC recently.

Others constantly repeat the line that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. Factually, both claims are open to dispute, though it depends how you define a democracy. It is true to say that systems of government in the Middle East leave much to be desired, but several countries - including Morocco, Egypt, Yemen, Kuwait, Lebanon, Bahrain and Iran - do hold recognisably competitive elections.

If we really wanted to create beacons of democracy in the region, there is a lot we could do in practical ways to help those countries along the road, without the need to bomb Iraq into democracy.

Beacons of democracy are fine, of course, so long as we are prepared to live with the results. There's a widespread assumption that Middle Eastern voters would, given half the chance, throw out the men with moustaches and elect clean-shaven figures like George Bush and Tony Blair.

But we should not bank on that. In the present climate, with the US swaggering around the region and making no effort to clear up the festering sore of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it's more likely that military moustaches would be replaced by the straggly beards of Islamic militancy.

The reality, however, is that the US has no genuine interest in democratising the Middle East. Its interest is in obtaining governments that are malleable, not anti-American or anti-Israeli, and willing to collaborate in the "war on terrorism" even at the expense of human rights. So long as they do that, democracy is neither here nor there.

In a BBC radio interview a few days ago, a policy expert from the Cato Institute, a Washington based thinktank, warned that the Indonesian government - democratically elected - would have to do more to combat terrorism. If it didn't, he suggested, the US would have to have a word with its friends in the Indonesian army about changing the government.

There are plenty of other examples of this sort of behaviour -including "the other September 11", in 1973, when a US-inspired coup removed the elected Allende government in Chile.

In terms of what Arabs themselves want, there is not much evidence that they regard democracy - for its own sake - as a high priority. What ordinary people do complain about, endlessly, is corrupt and unjust government. Ask them if democracy would cure that, and they generally reply that the politicians will continue to line their own pockets whether democratically elected or not.

As far as Iraq is concerned, it is not the most obvious cradle for regional democracy, because of the conflicting ethnic and religious minorities. Democracy - a word often uttered with a capital D as if it were some absolute, definable quality - takes various forms, all of them imperfect.

Essentially, it's a formalised means for resolving arguments according to the wishes of the majority, which is fine so long as the minority accepts it.

A democratic system becomes much more difficult and complex to achieve where there are substantial minorities, as in Iraq, whose rights need to be protected.

It is therefore not very surprising that the latest US plan for a postwar Iraq, disclosed last weekend, put democratisation on the back burner and proposed instead an extended period of firm military rule - headed, in all probability, by a US general.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

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Monday, October 14, 2002

Ashcroft fails to produce arresting developments

The US attorney general has not made one significant breakthrough in America's domestic 'war on terror', says Julian Borger

Julian Borger
Thursday October 10, 2002
The Guardian

After the arrest of four alleged followers of al-Qaida and the Taliban last week, John Ashcroft declared it "a defining day" in the fight against terrorism.

It may well turn out the attorney general was right, but not in the sense he intended.

The arrests, in Portland, Oregon and in Detroit, defined Ashcroft's performance so far at the justice department in that they were low-level, seemingly timed to create the impression of progress in the struggle with terrorism, and extravagantly hyped to emphasise the threat of the "enemy within".

In that sense, they had a lot in common with the arrest in May of Jose Padilla, dramatically portrayed by Ashcroft as the lynchpin in a plot to detonate a radioactive "dirty bomb" on US soil, but who now appears to be little more than a disoriented thug with grandiose ideas.

Certainly, there is much less talk about dirty bombs emanating from the justice department these days. The four suspects arrested last week, plus two more still at large abroad, were described as a "sleeper cell", but the label is apt more because they were dozy than surreptitious.

They made so much noise practising with their guns in a Washington state quarry that they drew the attention of a local policeman who - startled to see men in flowing robes and turbans shooting assault rifles a few days after the September 11 attacks - took down their names.

Undeterred, the suspects left the country a few weeks later allegedly with the intention of fighting alongside the Taliban - unorthodox behaviour for a supposed sleeper cell already ensconced in suburban America.

Moreover, they took the hardest possible route. Instead of wandering over the ultra-porous Pakistani border, they tried entering through China, whose short frontier with Afghanistan is heavily patrolled by the People's Liberation Army. The mojahedin wannabes were unsurprisingly turned back, although this Chinese assistance in Washington's war on terror went unacknowledged by the attorney-general.

Five of the six alleged cell members were American citizens. Two were of Arab origin, and the other three were African American converts to Islam, in an apparent echo of the black West Coast radicalism of another era. One of the suspects, Patrice Lumumba Ford, is the son of a former Black Panther member.

There was no sign that the would-be cell was planning an attack on US soil, nor is it clear why the authorities waited so long after their abortive trip to Afghanistan before arresting them. But Ashroft's justice department has had few victories to boast about lately.

Ashcroft downplayed the threat of terrorism before September 11, turning down an FBI request to recruit extra agents and analysts on the day before the attacks, even though at the time the bureau had only one analyst working full time on the al-Qaida threat. In retrospect, Ashcroft was lucky to hold on to his job.

Since then, the justice department has failed to track down any serious al-Qaida cells, nor has it caught the person responsible for sending anthrax-laced letters to politicians and journalists last year. It is in danger of bungling its case against Zacarias Moussaoui, the Frenchman accused of being the 20th hijacker in the September 11 plot, mistakenly handing him 48 classified FBI reports among the court documents he required for his defence.

The FBI is also under fire for refusing to hand over documents to Congress about a government informer in San Diego who turns out to have been the landlord of two of the September 11 hijackers, Khalid al-Midhar and Nawaq al-Hazmi, a year before the attacks.

The refusal is in line with Ashcroft's regime of secrecy which has often appeared more geared towards obscuring mistakes than towards national security. The link to al-Midhar and al-Hazmi would certainly raise yet more questions over whether the FBI could have prevented September 11 by looking more carefully at the evidence it had in its hands.

Nor has intelligence-sharing between the FBI and the CIA improved all that much over the past year. For all the plans for reorganisation at the top, in the shape of the planned homeland security department, there is entrenched resistance to change in the lower ranks, who have seen reforming administrations come and go before.

The department's other much-publicised arrests, of four Arabs in Detroit in August and six Yemeni-Americans in Lackawanna, New York, last month, have been controversial. In both cases, the evidence so far revealed against the suspects has fallen well short of the dramatic claims made at the time of the arrests.

The incidents have also revealed the extent of the close electronic surveillance being routinely carried out in Arab-American communities, bringing with it accusations of racial profiling and abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which requires a lower standard of evidence to set up a wire-tap than normal criminal cases.

If this is indeed a war against terror, John Ashcroft is not having a good one. He has chopped away at some basic American civil liberties but has had very little to show for it apart from a handful of American fellow travellers with no serious plans for attacks on American soil.

However, he is almost certain to keep his job. His presence at the justice department always had more to do with the deal George Bush made with the religious right than the former Missouri senator's own aptitude.

With congressional elections looming and the presidential campaign due to kick off after that, all that is required of him is to produce a few arrests from time to time, and proclaim more "defining days" in America's perpetual struggle.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

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Friday, October 11, 2002

U.S. Has a Plan to Occupy Iraq, Officials Report


By DAVID E. SANGER and ERIC SCHMITT

WASHINGTON, Oct. 10 ? The White House is developing a detailed plan, modeled on the postwar occupation of Japan, to install an American-led military government in Iraq if the United States topples Saddam Hussein, senior administration officials said today.

The plan also calls for war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders and a transition to an elected civilian government that could take months or years.

In the initial phase, Iraq would be governed by an American military commander ? perhaps Gen. Tommy R. Franks, commander of United States forces in the Persian Gulf, or one of his subordinates ? who would assume the role that Gen. Douglas MacArthur served in Japan after its surrender in 1945.

One senior official said the administration was "coalescing around" the concept after discussions of options with President Bush and his top aides. But this official and others cautioned that there had not yet been any formal approval of the plan and that it was not clear whether allies had been consulted on it.

The detailed thinking about an American occupation emerges as the administration negotiates a compromise at the United Nations that officials say may fall short of an explicit authorization to use force but still allow the United States to claim it has all the authority it needs to force Iraq to disarm.

In contemplating an occupation, the administration is scaling back the initial role for Iraqi opposition forces in a post-Hussein government. Until now it had been assumed that Iraqi dissidents both inside and outside the country would form a government, but it was never clear when they would take full control.

Today marked the first time the administration has discussed what could be a lengthy occupation by coalition forces, led by the United States.

Officials say they want to avoid the chaos and in-fighting that have plagued Afghanistan since the defeat of the Taliban. Mr. Bush's aides say they also want full control over Iraq while American-led forces carry out their principal mission: finding and destroying weapons of mass destruction.

The description of the emerging American plan and the possibility of war-crime trials of Iraqi leaders could be part of an administration effort to warn Iraq's generals of an unpleasant future if they continue to support Mr. Hussein.

Asked what would happen if American pressure prompted a coup against Mr. Hussein, a senior official said, "That would be nice." But the official suggested that the American military might enter and secure the country anyway, not only to eliminate weapons of mass destruction but also to ensure against anarchy.

Under the compromise now under discussion with France, Russia and China, according to officials familiar with the talks, the United Nations Security Council would approve a resolution requiring the disarmament of Iraq and specifying "consequences" that Iraq would suffer for defiance.

It would stop well short of the explicit authorization to enforce the resolution that Mr. Bush has sought. But the diplomatic strategy, now being discussed in Washington, Paris and Moscow, would allow Mr. Bush to claim that the resolution gives the United States all the authority he believes he needs to force Baghdad to disarm.

Other Security Council members could offer their own, less muscular interpretations, and they would be free to draft a second resolution, authorizing the use of force, if Iraq frustrated the inspection process. The United States would regard that second resolution as unnecessary, senior officials say.

"Everyone would read this resolution their own way," one senior official said.

The revelation of the occupation plan marks the first time the administration has described in detail how it would administer Iraq in the days and weeks after an invasion, and how it would keep the country unified while searching for weapons.

It would put an American officer in charge of Iraq for a year or more while the United States and its allies searched for weapons and maintained Iraq's oil fields.

For as long as the coalition partners administered Iraq, they would essentially control the second largest proven reserves of oil in the world, nearly 11 percent of the total. A senior administration official said the United Nations oil-for-food program would be expanded to help finance stabilization and reconstruction.

Administration officials said they were moving away from the model used in Afghanistan: establishing a provisional government right away that would be run by Iraqis. Some top Pentagon officials support this approach, but the State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and, ultimately, the White House, were cool to it.

"We're just not sure what influence groups on the outside would have on the inside," an administration official said. "There would also be differences among Iraqis, and we don't want chaos and anarchy in the early process."

Instead, officials said, the administration is studying the military occupations of Japan and Germany. But they stressed a commitment to keeping Iraq unified, as Japan was, and avoiding the kind partition that Germany underwent when Soviet troops stayed in the eastern sector, which set the stage for the cold war. The military government in Germany stayed in power for four years; in Japan it lasted six and a half years.

In a speech on Saturday, Zalmay Khalilzad, the special assistant to the president for Near East, Southwest Asian and North African affairs, said, "The coalition will assume ? and the preferred option ? responsibility for the territorial defense and security of Iraq after liberation."

"Our intent is not conquest and occupation of Iraq," Mr. Khalilzad said. "But we do what needs to be done to achieve the disarmament mission and to get Iraq ready for a democratic transition and then through democracy over time."

Iraqis, perhaps through a consultative council, would assist an American-led military and, later, a civilian administration, a senior official said today. Only after this transition would the American-led government hand power to Iraqis.

He said that the Iraqi armed forces would be "downsized," and that senior Baath Party officials who control government ministries would be removed. "Much of the bureaucracy would carry on under new management," he added.

Some experts warned during Senate hearings last month that a prolonged American military occupation of Iraq could inflame tensions in the Mideast and the Muslim world.

"I am viscerally opposed to a prolonged occupation of a Muslim country at the heart of the Muslim world by Western nations who proclaim the right to re-educate that country," said the former secetary of state, Henry A. Kissinger, who as a young man served as a district administrator in the military government of occupied Germany.

While the White House considers its long-term plans for Iraq, Britain's prime minister, Tony Blair, arrived in Moscow this evening for a day and a half of talks with President Vladimir V. Putin. Aides said talks were focused on resolving the dispute at the United Nations. Mr. Blair and Mr. Putin are to hold formal discussions on Friday, followed by a news conference.

Mr. Blair has been a steadfast supporter of the administration's tough line on a new resolution. But he has also indicated that Britain would consider France's proposal to have a two-tiered approach, with the Security Council first adopting a resolution to compel Iraq to cooperate with international weapons inspectors, and then, if Iraq failed to comply, adopting a second resolution on military force. Earlier this week, Russia indicated that it, too, was prepared to consider the French position.

But the administration is now saying that if there is a two-resolution approach, it will insist that the first resolution provide Mr. Bush all the authority he needs.

"The timing of all this is impossible to anticipate," one administration official involved in the talks said. "The president doesn't want to have to wait around for a second resolution if it is clear that the Iraqis are not cooperating."

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POLITICS-U.S.: Conservative Christians Biggest Backers of Iraq War


Thu Oct 10, 6:26 AM ET

Jim Lobe,Inter Press Service

WASHINGTON, Oct 9 (IPS) - Of the major religious groups in the United States, evangelical Christians are the biggest backers of Israel and Washington's planned war against Iraq, says a new survey released here Wednesday by a politically potent group of fundamentalist Christians and Jews.

Some 69 percent of conservative Christians favour military action against Baghdad; 10 percentage points more than the U.S. adult population as a whole.

And almost two-thirds of evangelical Christians say they support Israeli actions towards ''Palestinian terrorism'', compared with 54 percent of the general population, according to the survey, which was released by Stand For Israel, a six-month-old spin-off of the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews (IFCJ).

''The single strongest group for Israel in the United States, apart from Jews, is conservative Christians,'' declared Ralph Reed, co-chairman of Stand for Israel and former executive director of the Christian Coalition. He also noted that 80 percent of self-identified Republicans also favour military action against Baghdad.

Reed, who was widely regarded as the wunderkind of the Christian Right during the 1990s, said the poll results might have important political implications in upcoming U.S. elections, particularly for the Jewish vote, which has traditionally gone overwhelmingly to Democrats. In 2000, for example, only 18 percent of Jewish voters cast ballots for President George W. Bush (news - web sites).

''There is a new openness among Jewish voters to support this president and other Republicans who strongly support Israel,'' Reed said, adding that he believes Bush in 2004 may reap close to the 38 percent of the Jewish vote harvested by Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) in 1984, the highest percentage ever received by a Republican presidential candidate.

Some 81 percent of Jewish respondents said they see Bush as a strong supporter of Israel, and 46 percent said they were more likely to vote for him based on his handling of the ''war on terrorism''. The poll also found that two-thirds of Republicans said they supported Israel in the current conflict, compared to 46 percent of Democrats.

''The bottom line is that Bush appears to be making some significant inroads with this heavily Democratic group, something that could have an impact on the next two election cycles,'' said Ed Goeas, head of the Tarrance Group, which carried out the poll.

The survey, which included 1,200 respondents contacted last week, tends to confirm the findings of similar polls over the last several years that have shown strong support for Israel on the part of evangelical Christians, who together make up about one third of the U.S. adult population.

Historically apolitical, the group first came to the attention of the political elite in 1976 when large numbers of them helped elect Jimmy Carter, a ''born-again'' Christian. Disillusioned by Carter's liberal politics and social attitudes, they became a major recruiting ground for the ''New Right'' that in turn paved the way for the election in 1980 of former president Ronald Reagan.

At the same time, Christian fundamentalists were also avidly courted by the right-wing Likud government in Israel, which saw in them a promising new constituency that, for theological reasons, could be persuaded to oppose the return of Jerusalem and the West Bank to Arab rule.

In 1979, the government of Israel reportedly gave Jerry Falwell, head of the ''Moral Majority'' and the leading Christian Right figure of the time, his first private jet.

The Israeli government has also arranged special tours for evangelical Christian groups that have contributed tens of millions of dollars to Jewish and Israeli agencies involved in resettling Jews to Israel and in building Israeli settlements on the occupied territories.

With offices in Chicago and Jerusalem, the IFCJ has acted as a key forum for promoting the relationship between conservative U.S. Jews and evangelical Christians since 1983. As violence between Israelis and Palestinians intensified last spring, the group created ''Stand for Israel'', which it called ''an effort to strategically mobilise leadership and grassroots support in the Christian community for the State of Israel''.

''Jews are only now beginning to understand the depth of support they have among conservative Christians,'' said IFCJ's founder-director and Stand for Israel co-chairman, Rabbi Yechiel Eckstein, at the time.

''Once the potential of this immense reservoir of good will is fully comprehended by the Jewish people and strategically tapped by the Stand for Israel campaign, you will see support for Israel in the United States swell dramatically.''

The new survey's results appear to bear out that prediction, at least in part. Two thirds of conservative Christians queried in the poll said that they believed they shared the same or similar perspective as Jews when it comes to the issue of ''Israel and its current struggle against Palestine''.

Reed and Eckstein also claimed that the survey effectively debunked the notion that evangelical Christian support for Israel was based on New Testament prophecy that the reconstruction of the ancient Jewish kingdom of David would usher in the ''end times'' and the second coming of Christ.

Asked which was the most important of four possible reasons why they supported Israel, 56 percent of fundamentalist Christian respondents chose political reasons, particularly Israel's democratic values, its alliance with the United States in the war against terrorism, and its role as a safe haven for persecuted Jews elsewhere. Thirty-five percent opted for the ''end-times'' option.

But when given a choice of four religious alternatives, only 28 percent cited the end-times alternative. Almost two thirds said that God had given the Jews the land of Israel as the main theological reason for backing the Jewish state.

''This survey bears out my view that Christians are trustworthy and vital allies,'' said Eckstein. ''I've seen more positive changes (in Jewish and conservative Christian relations) in the past six months than I have for the past 25 years,'' he added.

Along with announcing the survey results, Eckstein, who co-chairs Stand for Israel with Reed, unveiled a one-minute video which will be run in ''tens of thousands'' of churches with combined memberships of 3.2 million people on Sunday, Oct. 20, exhorting Christians to pray for Israel whose enemies, it says, ''are on the attack again''.

''God has promised that those who bless Israel will themselves be blessed,'' says the video, which is filled with recent images of violence in Israel and the West Bank.

Reed conceded that not all conservative Christians were as supportive of Israel as those involved in the ''Stand for Israel'' campaign.

Indeed, some 50 evangelical ministers recently issued a statement opposing unilateral military action against Iraq, and at least one national evangelical group has urged a more-balanced policy toward Israel and the Palestinians. But Reed insisted that his views represented those of a ''very, very large majority'' of evangelical Christians.

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